Friday, September 5, 2014

How Modi ji reversed the political math of self styled seculars


The power of perception is central to any political space. And, it's not just about constructing an image, but a sustained effort to ensure that the story you build around yourself is the story others believe. Over a period of time, though, these perceptions become assumed facts, prompting important political decisions, some of which can upset settled understandings of the political field. Arguably, as far as perception goes, Modi has emerged as among the most divisive figures in India's contemporary political history. This is not a comment on whether he is actually all that, but the fact remains that this is the perception of him, and hence his politics.
It is this effect, based on Modi's anti-minority perception, that is making regional players cede their middle ground and take extreme positions to emphasise the divide. But in doing so, they are taking positions similar to their traditional rivals. In West Bengal Left and Congress, as every other divide will collapse in the larger argument of who is more secular and, therefore, the true claimant to the Muslim vote and are bound to draw Mamata Banerjee into a similar competition in the polls. Let's not forget that the subtext of the Trinamool Congress's victory in the Howrah by-election was that the BJP withdrew its candidate to the benefit of the TMC. The Left is surely going to exploit this further, turning it again into a contest of who is the greater secularist.

Even in a state like Maharashtra, where there was every chance that traditional alliances may come under pressure and the field might open up to a broader contest, Modi's emergence has reinforced the secular line. The choice for, say, a party like the NCP to move away from the Congress has become tougher, given the political premium attached to being secular.This gravitation away from the middle ground, in many ways, is bound to produce a counter-response from the BJP. Herein lies the magic of divisive politics — upsetting settled equations, which eventually forces the reorganisation of the political space. That, in effect, provides Modi and the BJP their best shot at maximising numbers.

Here is where Modi's well crafted campaign around strong and decisive governance will hope to find resonance amongst the large set of voters, who may feel left out or even insecure due to the rush within their patron parties to capture the minority sentiment. This chunk can be disparate and from across caste and religious groups, but in an equal quest for political security. Hence the chance of a new leader. How the BJP moves to capture this middle ground and the way in which the other political parties reconciles its secular opposition to provide a riposte, in many ways, provide the new markers that will shape the battlefield for future elections.
Vande Mataram. 

Special mention: This is an extract from an Indian Express article by Pranab Dhal Samanta


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