Delhi Assembly Election – At 2015 perspective

Before we get into the topic let us move down the memory lane, not much, only back to 2011-12 to have a better understanding of the prevailing situation and probable outcome of 2015 Delhi Assembly Election.

Reputation of Indian National Congress led United Progressive Alliance, UPA-I and UPA-II government was at stake as various financial irregularities started surfacing one after another and the then Prime Minister preferred to keep quiet, as he is better known for, in all financial irregularities. Let us briefly go through all the financial irregularities which surfaced during UPA-I and UPA-II regime.

1.2G Spectrum Scam (2008) – valued Rs 176000 Crores

2. Satyam Scam (2009) – valued Rs 14000 Crores

3. Commonwealth Games Scam (2010) – valued Rs 70000 Crores

4. Coal Scam (2012) – valued Rs 186000 Crores

5.Chopper Scam (2012) – Augusta Westland gave bribe to get a contract for supplying 12 helicopters worth USD 610 million

6.Tatra truck scam (2012) – The scam involves a sum of Rs 14 Crores as bribe.

7.Adarsh Scam (2012) – 31 storey building was made for war widows and personnel of India’s Ministry of Defence in posh locality of Colaba, Mumbai, instead bureaucrats got those flats. It was seen even politicians and army personnel connived to grab this apartment. Allegations have been made against three former chief ministers of Maharashtra – SushilkumarShinde, VilasraoDeshmukh and Ashok Chavan. 

During that period BhartiyaJanata Party and its allies combinedlyNational Democratic Alliance (NDA) was going through a rough phase. The search for a strong leader who could lead the nation, within them, for 16^thLokSabha, was their priority during that period.

With unearthing of various scams and corruptions during UPA-I and UPA-II government, common people in India were utterly discontented. KisanBaburao "Anna" Hazare, an Indian social activist who led movements to promote rural development, started a hunger strike on 5 April 2011 to exert pressure on the Indian government to enact a stringent anti-corruption law,The Lokpal Bill, 2011 as envisaged in the Jan Lokpal Bill, for the institution of an ombudsman with the power to deal with corruption in public places. The ‘fast’ led to nation-wide protests in support. ArvindKejriwal, a Mechanical Engineering graduate of the Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur and worked for the Indian Revenue Service (IRS) as a Joint Commissioner in the Income Tax Department, along with Manish Sisodia joined Hazare with his movement. The‘fast’ ended on 9 April 2011, a day after the government accepted Hazare's demands.

The origin of the AamAdmi Party (AAP) can be traced to a difference of opinion between ArvindKejriwaland Anna Hazare regarding whether or not to politicise the popular India Against Corruption movement that had been demanding a Jan Lokpal Bill since 2011, Hazare preferred that the movement should remain politically unaligned while Kejriwal felt the failure of the agitation route necessitated a direct political involvement.Kejriwal had support from some anti-corruption movement activists, such as PrashantBhushan and Shanti Bhushan, but was opposed by others such asKiranBedi and SantoshHegde.AamAadmi Party was formally launched on 26 November 2012. Being a newly formed political party, AAP’s movement was centred in Delhi initially.

It was under this circumstances Assembly Election of Delhi was held on 4^th December 2013. Delhi witnessed a crashing defeat of Indian National Congress, irked by nation-wide corruption stories and Commonwealth Games Scam, Delhites ousted 15 years old Congress Government from Delhi. The score sheet was BJP – 31, SAD – 1, AAP – 28, INC – 8,JD (U) – 1 and Independent – 1. AAP’s performance in that election overwhelmed everyone as winning 28 seats out of 70 seats was indeed an excellent job for a year old political party. AAP formed a minority government in the hung assembly, with outside support from the 8 Indian National CongressMLAs, 1Janta Dal MLA and 1 independent MLA.Kejriwal was sworn in as the second-youngest Chief Minister of Delhi on 28 December 2013, after ChaudharyBrahmPrakash. On 49^th day as Chief Minister, after failing to table Jan Lokpal Bill in Delhi Assembly, Kejriwal resigned on 14^th February 2014. Kejriwal blamedIndian National Congress and BharatiyaJanata Party for stalling the anti-corruption legislation and linked it with the government's decision to register a First Information Report (FIR) against industrialist MukeshAmbani, CMD of Reliance Industries. In April 2014, Kejriwal said that he had made a mistake by resigning without listening to the people to understand what their expectations were of him.

Let us come back in present context. On 13^th September 2013, BhartiyaJanata Party was able to finish their task which was their top most priority; they finally got their PM candidate for 16^thLokSabha Election, Sri NarendraDamodardasModi – Chief Minister of Gujarat. With initial jittery from few alliances of NDA, Sri NarendraModi was accepted by NDA as PM candidate for 16^thLokSabha. 16^thLokSabhaElection gave a clear mandate for NDA, which happened after 1984 when Late Rajiv Gandhi of Congress (I) became Prime Minister of India. From 1989 to 2014, India has gone through coalition government and people understood the pros and cons of coalition government along with ShriModi’s 14 years of Good Governance for Gujarat, lead to such result in 16^thLokSabha Election. INC could manage 44 seats only and even lost their claim to be the opposition party in the Parliament!Delhi was swept away by BJP by winning all 7 seats of Delhi. Mr ArvindKejriwal of AAP filed his candidature form Varanasi constituency against Sri Modi, it was like two Test playing Cricketing nations playing at a neutral venue, where ShriModi got 581,022 votes and Mr Kejriwal got 209,238 votes. Needless to mention a universal truth still worth mentioning, BJP is in better position presently, than what they were in 2013, when they managed 31 seats out of 70 seats of Delhi, only 5 seats short!

After reading the above, if we think Delhi Election 2015 is a battle of evens – BJP and AAP, the tilt towards BJP happenedon 15^th January 2015, with former IPS officer KiranBedi joining BJP. Once a co-fighter in India Against Corruption movement, ArvindKejriwal and KiranBedi, both Ramon Magsaysay Award Winner, both IIT-ians, will be going head-on, one against another, for Chief Minister of Delhi.Bedi first hit the headlines in 1972, when she became the first woman officer in Indian Police Services (IPS) and was continuously in headlines throughout her career as IPS till she took voluntary retirement on December 2007. She was named Crane Bedi when she towed the Prime Minister Indira Gandhi’s car for parking violation! KiranBedi along with 15 other police officers set up Navjyoti India Foundation (NIF) in 1987, NIF started with a de-addiction and rehabilitation initiative for the drug addicts and now the organization has expanded to other social issue like illiteracy and women empowerment. In 1994 Bedi setup India Vision Foundation which works in field of police reforms, prison reforms,women empowerment and rural & community development. Her efforts have won national and international recognition, and her organizations were awarded the "Serge Soitiroff Memorial Award" for drug abuse prevention by the United Nations.After retirement, KiranBedi launched a new website saferindia. The goal of this website was to help people whose complaints are not accepted by the local police.

Politics is not only understanding own strength and weakness it’s also about understanding opponent’s strength and weakness. Keriwal’s weakness is his restlessness! He seeks immediate result. He didn’t even abide by his service condition; he joined IRS in 1995, took 2 years conditional paid leave for higher studies in 2000 from Department of Income Tax. Condition was on resuming his work he would not resign from service for at least 3 years, on failure he would require to repay the salary given during leave. He rejoined in 2003 and worked for 18 months before taking 18 months unpaid leave. He was asked to repay his salary for leave, he countered 18 months’ work and 18 months unpaid leave completes his 3 years of service after paid leave. Dispute continued and was resolved when he repaid the leave salary with the help of loan from friends. Kejriwal though joined Anna Hazare in India Against Corruption campaign, parted in between with politicising the movement. Another example of his restlessness is his resignation from CM within 49 days!

Kejriwal’s 49 days stint as a CM of Delhi has given lot of input to his opponent which can be highlighted during campaign. Kejriwal is a big blame game player. His tries to camouflage his inability by blaming others. He wanted to change 15 years INC regime at Delhi overnight which he could have done over a period of time but again his personal trait of restlessness disrupted it. He announced power subsidy without making provision in budget, again a hasty move. Staged dharna against Delhi Police for non-cooperation as Delhi Police is under Central Government, rather he could have negotiated or persuaded or legally moved for Delhi Police to be under State Government, which obviously would have been a long drawn process, but he was always in a hurry!

Inspired by the Ice Bucket Challenge and Prime Minister NarendraModi’sSwacch Bharat Abhiyan, the AAP on 2^nd January 2015 launched a fund-raising campaign — I Fund Honest Party — donate Rs 10,000/- to AAP and nominate 11 others to donate Rs 10,000/- to AAP, to boost donations ahead of Delhi Assembly polls. Nowadays every day we see and hear Kejriwal saying to voters to take bribe from Congress and BJP and vote for AAP! How can a person openly preaching bribe claims his party honest?

We have tried to highlight difference in scenario – in 2013 and in 2015, which definitely has a tilt towards BJP and we are hopeful to see BJP getting an absolute majority in Delhi Assembly Election in 2015. To end, we would like to quote Otto Van Bismarck, a German aristocrat and statesman, “Politics is an art of the possible”, and reframe it anything and everything is possible in politics. Let us not give an inch of space to our opponent and make it possible for us and impossible for opponents.