Mission Sonar Bangla: Minority Population - a reality check

In West Bengal Hindus are the majority with 72.47 per cent (58 millions), while Muslims constitute as the largest minority community with 25.25 per cent (20 millions). The Muslims in West Bengal resides across the state and yet their concentration varies substantially. These two communities (Hindus and Muslims) share more than 97 per cent to the total population. The above table shows the trends of Muslims population (1951-2041) in West Bengal. In 1951 Muslim population accounted for 19.85 percent. The dominating position of the share of Hindu population continued, but then share decline from 78.45 per cent in 1951 to 72.47 per cent in 2001 (Census of India, 2001).

Although, all religious communities have increased but among them Muslims have more positive growth in terms of percentage shares to the total population. If this growth continue in the same trend the share of Muslim population by 2041 is estimated to be 29.36 per cent and share of Hindu population is estimated to be 69.28 per cent. Overall, it has been observed that Muslims have been experiencing higher population growth rates than the Hindus and this is sometimes made into a political issue. Demographers have observed that the higher growth rate among Muslims is mainly due to their higher fertility rate, to some extent be associated with their low socio-economic and educational status.

Distribution of Muslim Population

The highest share of Muslim population with 63.67 percent (i.e. 3735380) is found in the district of Murshidabad while the district of Darjeeling has lowest share with 5 percent (i.e.85378) of total population. Three clusters of districts are made according to the concentration of Muslim population with the help of their mean and standard deviation which is shown in the Table-2.

Muslim concentrated districts:

It may be consider that the districts where the concentration is more than 32.91 percent may called as ‘’Muslim concentrated districts‟. It is evident from the table that out of the 18 districts of the state, 5 districts shows relatively higher concentration of Muslim population. They are Murshidabad (63.67), Malda (49.72), Uttar Dinajpur (47.36), Birbhum (35.08) and S 24 Parganas (33.24), forming a continuous region of high concentration of Muslim population in the middle parts of the state.

Medium slab of Muslim concentration:

Muslim population ranging from 16.95-32.91 percent of the total population is considered as the ‘‘medium slab of Muslim concentration’’ which include the districts of Nadia (25.41), Howrah (24.44), Coooch Bihar (24.24), N 24 Parganas (24.22), Dakshin Dinajpur (24.02), Kolkata (20.27) and Bardhaman(19.78)

Low Muslim concentrated districts:

Further, the districts where the Muslim population is less than 16.95 of the total population may be called as ‘‘low Muslim concentrated districts‟. Remaining six districts fall under „low concentrations of Muslims‟, these districts form two notable region in the state, Jalpaiguri (10.85) and Darjeeling (5.31) in the northern parts and Hooghly (15.14) Medinipur (11.33), Bankura (7.51) and Purulia (7.12) in the south-western part of the state.

Conclusion

Basically except the few districts the minority population in rest of Bengal is similar to that in rest of India. One major milestone in BJP’s journey in West Bengal is when Samik da won the Basirhat seat for BJP against all odds where there is 54% minority population and TMC put all their weight along with camping of their national secretary and countless other heavy weights including many film stars. It was only one seat and TMC put all its weight to stop BJP and they have failed.  In future elections they have to fight in many seats and their party machinery would be distributed and divided among all the seats so they would not be able to hold their fort for long in front of the Modi Sunami. BJP need to focus on the development agenda and the party must give ticket to hard working candidates who have clean image. People of Bengal is eagerly waiting to cast their votes for the real change towards making Sonar Bangla and BJP has a great future in West Bengal.

The writing is on the wall: BJP can win any seat and every seat in West Bengal.

Jai Hind

Keshab Ray